tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Madison via Minneapolis: arrives on time 56%

  1. 09:43 PHX → 14:45 MSP
    DL 1047 · Delta · 3h 02m · 88% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 57m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:42 MSP → 17:52 MSN
    DL 5331 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 10m · 60% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 72 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 57m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip6h 09mPHX 09:43 to MSN 17:52, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.