tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Washington via Minneapolis: arrives on time 61%

  1. 09:43 PHX → 14:45 MSP
    DL 1047 · Delta · 3h 02m · 88% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 3h 50m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:35 MSP → 22:02 DCA
    DL 2962 · Delta · 2h 27m · 63% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 9h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 185 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 50m layover.
Arrives on time61%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip9h 19mPHX 09:43 to DCA 22:02, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.