tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Asheville via Atlanta: arrives on time 33%

  1. 12:45 MSP → 16:16 ATL
    DL 1048 · Delta · 2h 31m · 81% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:02 ATL → 18:10 AVL
    DL 5121 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 09m · 51% on time, 2.1% cancelled

Total trip 4h 26m, scheduled departure to arrival (Asheville is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (2.1% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip4h 26mMSP 12:45 to AVL 18:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.