tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Fayetteville/Springdale/ via Atlanta: arrives on time 45%

  1. 12:45 MSP → 16:16 ATL
    DL 1048 · Delta · 2h 31m · 81% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:14 ATL → 18:05 XNA
    DL 2771 · Delta · 1h 51m · 60% on time, 5.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection79%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 21% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (79%) × second flight not cancelled (5.4% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip5h 20mMSP 12:45 to XNA 18:05, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.