tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fairbanks → Seattle via Minneapolis: arrives on time 58%

  1. 21:53 FAI → 06:05 MSP
    DL 1055 · Delta · 5h 12m · 64% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:00 MSP → 08:50 SEA +1 day
    DL 1418 · Delta · 3h 50m · 96% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 1 h ahead of Fairbanks). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time58%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (96%).
Total trip9h 57mFAI 21:53 to SEA 08:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.