tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fairbanks → Chicago via Minneapolis: arrives on time 50%

  1. 21:53 FAI → 06:05 MSP
    DL 1055 · Delta · 5h 12m · 64% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:00 MSP → 08:35 ORD +1 day
    DL 1544 · Delta · 1h 35m · 83% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 3 h ahead of Fairbanks). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip7h 42mFAI 21:53 to ORD 08:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.