tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fairbanks → Chicago via Minneapolis: arrives on time 68%

  1. 21:53 FAI → 06:05 MSP
    DL 1055 · Delta · 5h 12m · 64% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 55m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:00 MSP → 11:32 ORD +1 day
    DL 1567 · Delta · 1h 31m · 72% on time, 2.1% cancelled

Total trip 10h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 3 h ahead of Fairbanks). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 190 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 55m layover.
Arrives on time68%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (2.1% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip10h 38mFAI 21:53 to ORD 11:32, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.