tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Hebron via Detroit: arrives on time 72%

  1. 11:06 PHX → 17:54 DTW
    DL 1070 · Delta · 3h 48m · 85% on time, 0.7% cancelled
  2. 3h 41m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:35 DTW → 22:53 CVG
    DL 5478 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 18m · 75% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 8h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 176 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 41m layover.
Arrives on time72%First flight not cancelled (0.7% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip8h 47mPHX 11:06 to CVG 22:53, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.