tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Dulles via Detroit: arrives on time 63%

  1. 11:06 PHX → 17:54 DTW
    DL 1070 · Delta · 3h 48m · 85% on time, 0.7% cancelled
  2. 3h 44m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:38 DTW → 23:14 IAD
    DL 3988 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 36m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 179 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 44m layover.
Arrives on time63%First flight not cancelled (0.7% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip9h 08mPHX 11:06 to IAD 23:14, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.