tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Chicago via Detroit: arrives on time 71%

  1. 09:25 LGA → 11:25 DTW
    DL 1078 · Delta · 1h 59m · 90% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:25 DTW → 12:46 MDW
    DL 4688 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 21m · 82% on time, 1.2% cancelled

Total trip 4h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time71%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (1.2% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip4h 21mLGA 09:25 to MDW 12:46, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.