tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Washington via Raleigh/Durham: arrives on time 30%

  1. 17:24 ATL → 18:54 RDU
    DL 1097 · Delta · 1h 30m · 74% on time, 2.2% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Raleigh/Durham (RDU) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:47 RDU → 21:20 DCA
    DL 5198 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 33m · 49% on time, 8.1% cancelled

Total trip 3h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (2.2% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (8.1% are) and within 15 minutes (49%).
Total trip3h 56mATL 17:24 to DCA 21:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.