tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Orlando → Knoxville via Atlanta: arrives on time 40%

  1. 17:45 MCO → 19:40 ATL
    DL 1150 · Delta · 1h 55m · 60% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 04m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:44 ATL → 21:49 TYS
    DL 5224 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 05m · 67% on time, 1.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (1.0% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip4h 04mMCO 17:45 to TYS 21:49, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.