tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Orlando → Sacramento via Atlanta: arrives on time 56%

  1. 17:45 MCO → 19:40 ATL
    DL 1150 · Delta · 1h 55m · 60% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 19m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:59 ATL → 22:54 SMF
    DL 682 · Delta · 4h 55m · 82% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 8h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Orlando). Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 34 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 19m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip8h 09mMCO 17:45 to SMF 22:54, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.