tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Dayton via Atlanta: arrives on time 55%

  1. 19:05 PHL → 21:34 ATL
    DL 1169 · Delta · 2h 29m · 79% on time, 3.8% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:20 ATL → 23:51 DAY
    DL 3167 · Delta · 1h 34m · 83% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (3.8% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip4h 49mPHL 19:05 to DAY 23:51, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.