tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Wilmington via New York: arrives on time 66%

  1. 06:20 DCA → 07:34 LGA
    DL 1172 · Delta · 1h 14m · 87% on time, 5.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 19m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:53 LGA → 10:50 ILM
    DL 5186 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 03m · 80% on time, 3.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 34 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 19m layover.
Arrives on time66%First flight not cancelled (5.5% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (3.0% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip4h 36mDCA 06:20 to ILM 10:50, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.