tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Louisville via New York: arrives on time 69%

  1. 06:20 DCA → 07:34 LGA
    DL 1172 · Delta · 1h 14m · 87% on time, 5.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:39 LGA → 11:02 SDF
    DL 5643 · Delta, flown by Republic · 2h 28m · 87% on time, 2.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection87%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 13% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time69%First flight not cancelled (5.5% are) × connection made (87%) × second flight not cancelled (2.3% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip4h 47mDCA 06:20 to SDF 11:02, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.