tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → San Francisco via Atlanta: arrives on time 40%

  1. 18:34 IAH → 21:54 ATL
    DL 1223 · Delta · 2h 20m · 72% on time, 3.7% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:40 ATL → 00:40 SFO +1 day
    DL 656 · Delta · 5h 00m · 70% on time, 1.6% cancelled

Total trip 8h 06m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 28 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (3.7% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (1.6% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip8h 06mIAH 18:34 to SFO 00:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.