tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Chicago via Detroit: arrives on time 67%

  1. 06:05 LGA → 07:54 DTW
    DL 1231 · Delta · 1h 49m · 96% on time, 5.8% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:50 DTW → 09:14 MDW
    DL 4684 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 24m · 74% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time67%First flight not cancelled (5.8% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip4h 09mLGA 06:05 to MDW 09:14, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.