tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Dulles via Detroit: arrives on time 81%

  1. 06:05 LGA → 07:54 DTW
    DL 1231 · Delta · 1h 49m · 96% on time, 5.8% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:50 DTW → 10:23 IAD
    DL 2884 · Delta · 1h 35m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time81%First flight not cancelled (5.8% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip4h 20mLGA 06:05 to IAD 10:23, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.