tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Rochester via Detroit: arrives on time 76%

  1. 06:05 LGA → 07:54 DTW
    DL 1231 · Delta · 1h 49m · 96% on time, 5.8% cancelled
  2. 2h 26m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:20 DTW → 11:46 ROC
    DL 4120 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 26m · 81% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 101 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 26m layover.
Arrives on time76%First flight not cancelled (5.8% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip5h 41mLGA 06:05 to ROC 11:46, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.