tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Indianapolis via Detroit: arrives on time 43%

  1. 19:29 JFK → 21:56 DTW
    DL 1253 · Delta · 2h 27m · 71% on time, 11.6% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:50 DTW → 00:07 IND +1 day
    DL 5095 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 17m · 75% on time, 4.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 42 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (11.6% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (4.8% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip4h 38mJFK 19:29 to IND 00:07, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.