tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Columbus via Detroit: arrives on time 54%

  1. 19:29 JFK → 21:56 DTW
    DL 1253 · Delta · 2h 27m · 71% on time, 11.6% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:50 DTW → 23:56 CMH
    DL 5634 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 06m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 42 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (11.6% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip4h 27mJFK 19:29 to CMH 23:56, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.