tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → San Francisco via Atlanta: arrives on time 60%

  1. 06:00 MDW → 08:55 ATL
    DL 1285 · Delta · 1h 55m · 90% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:45 ATL → 11:45 SFO
    DL 672 · Delta · 5h 00m · 70% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection87%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 13% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (87%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip7h 45mMDW 06:00 to SFO 11:45, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.