tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → New York via Chicago: arrives on time 19%

  1. 15:20 MSP → 17:02 ORD
    DL 1306 · Delta · 1h 42m · 57% on time, 5.3% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:00 ORD → 21:40 JFK
    DL 4783 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 40m · 49% on time, 23.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time19%First flight not cancelled (5.3% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (23.6% are) and within 15 minutes (49%).
Total trip5h 20mMSP 15:20 to JFK 21:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.