tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Seattle via Chicago: arrives on time 26%

  1. 15:20 MSP → 17:02 ORD
    DL 1306 · Delta · 1h 42m · 57% on time, 5.3% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:55 ORD → 20:34 SEA
    DL 637 · Delta · 4h 39m · 60% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 46 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection46%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 54% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (5.3% are) × connection made (46%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip7h 14mMSP 15:20 to SEA 20:34, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.