tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Louisville via Minneapolis: arrives on time 30%

  1. 17:57 ORD → 19:38 MSP
    DL 1306 · Delta · 1h 41m · 51% on time, 7.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 11m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:49 MSP → 23:51 SDF
    DL 5070 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 00m · 53% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 26 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 11m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (7.2% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (53%).
Total trip4h 52mORD 17:57 to SDF 23:51, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.