tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Raleigh/Durham via Minneapolis: arrives on time 27%

  1. 17:57 ORD → 19:38 MSP
    DL 1306 · Delta · 1h 41m · 51% on time, 7.2% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:25 MSP → 23:59 RDU
    DL 2932 · Delta · 2h 34m · 78% on time, 0.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection38%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 62% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (7.2% are) × connection made (38%) × second flight not cancelled (0.8% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip5h 02mORD 17:57 to RDU 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.