tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → New York via Orlando: arrives on time 27%

  1. 17:03 RDU → 19:04 MCO
    DL 1319 · Delta · 2h 01m · 68% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Orlando (MCO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:58 MCO → 22:55 JFK
    DL 1668 · Delta · 2h 57m · 45% on time, 3.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (3.6% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip5h 52mRDU 17:03 to JFK 22:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.