tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Chicago via Atlanta: arrives on time 38%

  1. 18:05 MIA → 20:22 ATL
    DL 1386 · Delta · 2h 17m · 59% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:15 ATL → 22:17 MDW
    DL 1076 · Delta · 2h 02m · 77% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Miami). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip5h 12mMIA 18:05 to MDW 22:17, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.