tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Phoenix via Detroit: arrives on time 75%

  1. 05:33 RDU → 07:18 DTW
    DL 1388 · Delta · 1h 45m · 93% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 27m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:45 DTW → 09:56 PHX
    DL 1070 · Delta · 4h 11m · 80% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 42 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 27m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip7h 23mRDU 05:33 to PHX 09:56, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.