tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Knoxville via Detroit: arrives on time 41%

  1. 17:22 PHL → 19:09 DTW
    DL 1391 · Delta · 1h 47m · 70% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:59 DTW → 21:41 TYS
    DL 5138 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 42m · 68% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 4h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip4h 19mPHL 17:22 to TYS 21:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.