tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Memphis via Detroit: arrives on time 50%

  1. 17:22 PHL → 19:09 DTW
    DL 1391 · Delta · 1h 47m · 70% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:05 DTW → 21:04 MEM
    DL 1230 · Delta · 1h 59m · 79% on time, 4.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (4.0% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip4h 42mPHL 17:22 to MEM 21:04, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.