tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Seattle via Detroit: arrives on time 49%

  1. 17:22 PHL → 19:09 DTW
    DL 1391 · Delta · 1h 47m · 70% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 25m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:34 DTW → 22:34 SEA
    DL 565 · Delta · 5h 00m · 64% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection80%The first flight arrived more than 40 minutes late on 20% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 25m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (80%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip8h 12mPHL 17:22 to SEA 22:34, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.