tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → New York via San Francisco: arrives on time 25%

  1. 09:45 SEA → 12:08 SFO
    DL 1412 · Delta · 2h 23m · 64% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:00 SFO → 21:45 JFK
    DL 691 · Delta · 5h 45m · 49% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 9h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (49%).
Total trip9h 00mSEA 09:45 to JFK 21:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.