tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Boston → Madison via Detroit: arrives on time 49%

  1. 17:15 BOS → 19:39 DTW
    DL 1432 · Delta · 2h 20m · 70% on time, 1.2% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:37 DTW → 21:02 MSN
    DL 5444 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 25m · 79% on time, 6.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Boston). Times are local. Both flew on 29 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (1.2% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (6.7% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip4h 47mBOS 17:15 to MSN 21:02, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.