tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Boston → New York via Tampa: arrives on time 30%

  1. 15:32 BOS → 19:04 TPA
    DL 1439 · Delta · 3h 32m · 73% on time, 2.6% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Tampa (TPA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:59 TPA → 23:00 JFK
    DL 2095 · Delta · 3h 04m · 45% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (2.6% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip7h 31mBOS 15:32 to JFK 23:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.