tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Memphis via Detroit: arrives on time 38%

  1. 17:29 DCA → 19:15 DTW
    DL 1454 · Delta · 1h 45m · 64% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:05 DTW → 21:04 MEM
    DL 1230 · Delta · 1h 59m · 79% on time, 4.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection51%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 49% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (51%) × second flight not cancelled (4.0% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip4h 35mDCA 17:29 to MEM 21:04, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.