tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → New York via Detroit: arrives on time 33%

  1. 17:29 DCA → 19:15 DTW
    DL 1454 · Delta · 1h 45m · 64% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:10 DTW → 22:16 JFK
    DL 1316 · Delta · 2h 03m · 62% on time, 6.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (6.3% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip4h 44mDCA 17:29 to JFK 22:16, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.