tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Detroit → New York via Washington: arrives on time 28%

  1. 14:59 DTW → 16:34 DCA
    DL 1454 · Delta · 1h 35m · 51% on time, 1.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:40 DCA → 19:00 LGA
    DL 5763 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 23m · 51% on time, 8.6% cancelled

Total trip 4h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (1.7% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (8.6% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip4h 04mDTW 14:59 to LGA 19:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.