tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Louisville via Detroit: arrives on time 54%

  1. 16:15 MSP → 18:59 DTW
    DL 1476 · Delta · 1h 45m · 80% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:45 DTW → 21:15 SDF
    DL 5832 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 30m · 79% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 4h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip4h 00mMSP 16:15 to SDF 21:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.