tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Detroit via Atlanta: arrives on time 47%

  1. 15:40 JFK → 18:24 ATL
    DL 1480 · Delta · 2h 44m · 76% on time, 0.9% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:15 ATL → 21:16 DTW
    DL 1262 · Delta · 2h 01m · 69% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (0.9% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip5h 36mJFK 15:40 to DTW 21:16, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.