tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Sacramento via Atlanta: arrives on time 75%

  1. 15:40 JFK → 18:24 ATL
    DL 1480 · Delta · 2h 44m · 76% on time, 0.9% cancelled
  2. 2h 35m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:59 ATL → 22:54 SMF
    DL 682 · Delta · 4h 55m · 82% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 10h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 110 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 35m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (0.9% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip10h 14mJFK 15:40 to SMF 22:54, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.