tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → San Francisco via Minneapolis: arrives on time 62%

  1. 07:45 DCA → 09:27 MSP
    DL 1493 · Delta · 2h 42m · 81% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 33m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:00 MSP → 13:10 SFO
    DL 2074 · Delta · 4h 10m · 70% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 8h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection91%The first flight arrived more than 48 minutes late on 9% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 33m layover.
Arrives on time62%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (91%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip8h 25mDCA 07:45 to SFO 13:10, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.