tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Tampa via New York: arrives on time 53%

  1. 15:25 MIA → 18:54 JFK
    DL 1514 · Delta · 3h 29m · 73% on time, 4.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:59 JFK → 23:23 TPA
    DL 1636 · Delta · 3h 24m · 76% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 7h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (4.5% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip7h 58mMIA 15:25 to TPA 23:23, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.