tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Ana → New York via Atlanta: arrives on time 34%

  1. 12:18 SNA → 19:41 ATL
    DL 1521 · Delta · 4h 23m · 85% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:30 ATL → 23:04 JFK
    DL 2101 · Delta · 2h 34m · 47% on time, 3.6% cancelled

Total trip 7h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection76%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 24% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (76%) × second flight not cancelled (3.6% are) and within 15 minutes (47%).
Total trip7h 46mSNA 12:18 to JFK 23:04, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.