tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Louisville via Atlanta: arrives on time 63%

  1. 15:18 TPA → 16:54 ATL
    DL 1525 · Delta · 1h 36m · 72% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:59 ATL → 19:24 SDF
    DL 2831 · Delta · 1h 25m · 84% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 4h 06m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time63%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip4h 06mTPA 15:18 to SDF 19:24, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.