tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Santa Ana via Minneapolis: arrives on time 29%

  1. 15:55 ORD → 17:40 MSP
    DL 1533 · Delta · 1h 45m · 62% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:28 MSP → 20:24 SNA
    DL 2107 · Delta · 3h 56m · 68% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection45%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 55% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (45%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip6h 29mORD 15:55 to SNA 20:24, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.