tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Miami via Minneapolis: arrives on time 51%

  1. 15:55 ORD → 17:40 MSP
    DL 1533 · Delta · 1h 45m · 62% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 11m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:51 MSP → 23:35 MIA
    DL 2187 · Delta · 3h 45m · 75% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 6h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 26 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 11m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip6h 41mORD 15:55 to MIA 23:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.