tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Sacramento via Minneapolis: arrives on time 50%

  1. 15:55 ORD → 17:40 MSP
    DL 1533 · Delta · 1h 45m · 62% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:45 MSP → 20:37 SMF
    DL 574 · Delta · 3h 52m · 79% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip6h 42mORD 15:55 to SMF 20:37, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.