tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Sioux Falls via Minneapolis: arrives on time 32%

  1. 15:55 ORD → 17:40 MSP
    DL 1533 · Delta · 1h 45m · 62% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:30 MSP → 19:38 FSD
    DL 3578 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 08m · 70% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 3h 43m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection47%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 53% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (47%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip3h 43mORD 15:55 to FSD 19:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.